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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish an early-warning indicator system on outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome by Delphi method seeking expert advices.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Firstly, the literature review and the experts meeting method were used to formulate the initiator frame work and indicators. A two-round consultation was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient among 25 experts from 14 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The relative weightiless of indicators was determined by the weight coefficients method.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The experts' average length of service in prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was (23.80 ± 11.70) years. The positivity coefficients of the two-round experts were 100% and 72%. Kendall's coefficients of the two-round consultation were 0.50 (χ(2)(R) = 148.95, P < 0.01) and 0.54 (χ(2)(R) = 212.63, P < 0.01) and opinions among experts became consistent and the consultation had achieved the need of forecast. Four first-class indicators (host animals, risk population, social environment and case-related indicators) and 14 second-class indicators were filtered to develop the indicators system. The weight coefficients of the first-class indicators were 0.28, 0.23, 0.23 and 0.26.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The early-warning index system of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome has been established and it could provide a reference for the forest and warning of HFRS outbreak.</p>
Subject(s)
Animals , Humans , Disease Notification , Disease Outbreaks , Early Diagnosis , Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome , EpidemiologyABSTRACT
Objective To develop an early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. Methods The methods of literature review and expert discussion were used to formulate the initiatory framework and indicators, and then Delphi method was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient. Results The average length of service provided by experts who engaged in prevention and control of brucellosis was (25.10 ± 8.80) years and the positive coefficient of the consultant experts of the two-round results were 95% and 68%, respectively. Kendall coefficients were 0.35, 0.54 and X2R value were 81.31 and 285.27, respectively and P value was all less than 0.01. Five first-level indicators(the host animal, high-risk groups,social environment, index case and the level of previous disease) and 13 secondary indicators were selected to develop the early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. The weight coefficients of the five first-level indicators were 0.21, 0.22, 0.17, 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. Conclusions The early-waming indicator system of brucellosis outbreak is initially established. We propose to develop the early-warning programs according to local conditions and the indicator system.
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y increased. Control of smoking prevalence should play a vital role in the prevention of the lung cancer death risks in China.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore whether the vitamin D receptor gene (VDR) polymorphisms are associated with the outcomes of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Chinese Han population.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) was used to detect the polymorphisms of Fok I locus in exon 2 and Taq I locus in exon 9 of VDR gene. One hundred and eighty-four chronic hepatitis B patients and 205 asymptomatic HBV carriers were recruited to make the comparison of frequencies of genotype and haplotype of the VDR gene between the patients and the carriers.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The univariate analysis showed a significant difference in Fok I polymorphism between chronic hepatitis B patients group and asymptomatic HBV carriers group. The FF genotype frequency in chronic hepatitis B patients group was 44.6%,higher than 31.7% in asymptomatic HBV carriers group (P<0.05). After adjusting the confounders by multiple logistic regression analysis, the result still showed a significant difference in Fok I site polymorphism between chronic hepatitis B patients group and asymptomatic HBV carriers group (OR=1.95, P<0.05). The FT haplotype frequency in chronic hepatitis B patients group was higher than that in asymptomatic HBV carriers group (OR=1.45, P<0.05). The fT haplotype frequency in chronic hepatitis B patients group was lower than that in asymptomatic HBV carriers group (OR=0.72, P<0.05).</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>VDR gene polymorphism may be an influence factor of genetic susceptibility to HBV infection.</p>